CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought projections on seasonal to annual time scales are presented for Canada over the twenty-first century, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results make use of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation projections from 29 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and include three different forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Large differences in projected drought changes are observed among different regions. On the annual time scale, southwestern Canada and the Prairies may experience an increase in drying under a warmer climate. On the other hand, coastal regions, including northern Canada, the northwest Pacific coast and the Atlantic region, show a small increase in wetness. The projected drought responses are relatively modest in the low forcing scenario (RCP2.6) for most Canadian regions. In addition, even for regions most affected, a marked increase in surface water deficit might not occur until the second half of this century. Inter-model variation (a crude measure of projection uncertainty) typically increases with forcing intensity and lead time, and is generally greater in northern and western Canada.


Relevant Publications:


Tam, B. Y., K. Szeto, B. Bonsal, G. Flato, A. J. Cannon, and R. Rong. (2019). “CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index.” Canadian Water Resources Journal/Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 44(1), 90-107. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2018.15378 12


Tam, B. Y., A J. Cannon, and B. Bonsal. (2023). "Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Canada: Assessment of probability distributions" Canadian Water Resources Journal/Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2023.218314 3

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Metadata Record Information

File Identifier
a3bef0b5-1f91-4e9f-8b9d-2d48c6a5914c XML
Date Stamp
2023-02-21T19:34:24
Metadata language

eng; CAN
Character set
UTF8
Hierarchy Level
Series
Author
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )
Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd , Gatineau , Quebec , K1A 0H3 ,
1-800-668-6767
http://ec.gc.ca
 

Data identification

Date (Creation)
2018-01-01
Date (Publication)
2018-12-04
Status
Completed
Metadata language

eng; CAN
Character set
UTF8
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
Maintenance and Update Frequency
As needed
Spatial representation type
Text, table
Point of contact
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Science and Technology/Climate Research Division - Benita Tam ( Analyst )
Canada

Keywords

Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus

  • Drought

  • Climate change

  • Climate

ECCC Information Category EN

  • Weather and Climate

Business Functions

  • Provide Climate Information Products and Services

  • Deliver Climate Products and Services to Clients

Geography

  • National (CA)

external.theme.EC_Branch

  • Science and Technology Branch

external.theme.EC_Directorate

  • Atmospheric Science and Technology

external.theme.GC_Security_Level

  • Unclassified
 
Use Limitation

Open Government Licence - Canada ( http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada )

Access Constraints
License
Use Constraints
License
Begin Date
1900-01-01
End Date
2100-12-31

Extent

N
S
E
W
thumbnail


 
 

Ref. system Reference Systems

Reference system identifier
http://www.epsg-registry.org / EPSG:4326 /
 

Distribution

Distribution Formats

Distribution format
  • NetCDF ( 1 )

 
Distributor
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre )
Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd , Gatineau , Quebec , K1A 0H3 ,
1-800-668-6767
http://ec.gc.ca
 
 

Overviews

N
S
E
W
thumbnail


Keywords

Business Functions
Deliver Climate Products and Services to Clients Provide Climate Information Products and Services
ECCC Information Category EN
Weather and Climate
Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus
Climate Climate change Drought
external.theme.EC_Branch
Science and Technology Branch
external.theme.EC_Directorate
Atmospheric Science and Technology
external.theme.GC_Security_Level
Unclassified

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