Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected maximum temperature change

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in maximum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.



Projected change in maximum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected maximum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of maximum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.



Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled maximum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.



Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

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Metadata Record Information

File Identifier
57fee0af-40ec-4aad-89da-6c0d39a6424d XML
Date Stamp
2025-04-03T15:40:56.492Z
Metadata language

eng; CAN
Character set
UTF8
Hierarchy Level
Series
Author
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre)

Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3,
1-800-668-6767

http://ec.gc.ca
 

Data identification

Title

Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected maximum temperature change
Date (Publication)
2018-09-06
Date (Creation)
2018-01-01
Status
Completed
Metadata language

eng; CAN
Character set
UTF8
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
Maintenance and Update Frequency
As needed
Spatial representation type
Text, table
Point of contact
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Benita Tam ( Analyst)

Canada

Keywords

Theme

  • statistically downscaled scenarios, projections, climate, climate change, temperature, precipitation, percentiles, ensembles, climate model, cmip5

Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus

  • Climate

  • Climate change

ECCC Information Category EN

  • Weather and Climate

Business Functions

  • Provide Climate Information Products and Services

  • Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Geography

  • National (CA)

external.theme.EC_Branch

  • Science and Technology Branch

external.theme.EC_Directorate

  • Atmospheric Science and Technology

external.theme.GC_Security_Level

  • Unclassified
 
Use Limitation

Open Government Licence - Canada ( http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada)

Access Constraints
License
Use Constraints
License
Begin Date
2021-01-01
End Date
2100-01-01

Extent

N
S
E
W
thumbnail




 
 

Ref. system Reference Systems

Reference system identifier
EPSG / EPSG:4326 /
 

Distribution

Distribution Formats

Distribution format
  • NetCDF ( 1)

 
Distributor
  Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada - Environment and Climate Change Canada ( Public inquiries centre)

Fontaine Building 12th floor, 200 Sacré-Coeur Blvd, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3,
1-800-668-6767

http://ec.gc.ca
 
 

Overviews

N
S
E
W
thumbnail




Keywords

statistically downscaled scenarios, projections, climate, climate change, temperature, precipitation, percentiles, ensembles, climate model, cmip5
Business Functions

Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction Provide Climate Information Products and Services
ECCC Information Category EN

Weather and Climate
Government of Canada Core Subject Thesaurus

Climate Climate change
external.theme.EC_Branch

Science and Technology Branch
external.theme.EC_Directorate

Atmospheric Science and Technology
external.theme.GC_Security_Level

Unclassified


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